Winter weather wise

Well, look at that. We're in for a hard winter, aren't we, Pam? I look at the object at hand –a wooly bear caterpillar. Um, no. Or rather, maybe.

I have never seen as many wooly bear caterpillars as I have this fall. And in many different sizes – I never knew they also came in teeny-tiny at this time of year.

Old wives' tales tell us the amount of black on the caterpillar determines the length of harsh winter... Or is it the brown? I have actually heard it both ways. Plus, I recently had a student tell me it's chronological. Starting at the end and moving forward to the head, the pattern lays out winter from start to finish.

Unfortunately (or fortunately?), the caterpillar has no more knowledge of winter forecasts than we do. Actually, probably less. Its coloring has no basis in the weather. In fact, even siblings can have different patterns.

The same applies to acorns and squirrels. The amount of acorns an oak tree grows varies year by year as a predator control. Acorns, like other nuts, have a high fat content. Therefore, they are an essential part of fall diet of many animals, including deer, turkey, squirrel, other rodents, etc. A diet high in nuts allows for more fatty tissue to keep animals warm and hold off starvation in colder months.

As beneficial as nuts are to wildlife, the trees do not appreciate it much. An eaten nut is a tree not grown. An unpredictable amount of the nuts will allow, usually in banner year, some nuts to germinate and grow. Sorry, but more nuts do not mean a colder winter. The trees, even if they could forecast correctly, really don't want to be that kind to those that eat them.

Squirrels gathering acorns frantically is also supposed to indicate a harsh winter. If that is true, then we must be in for a doozy. The squirrels in my yard have been, pardon the pun, nuts. I swear the other day one pushed another off my roof. The day after, another one was climbing up my window screen.

Despite their unusual behavior, they still can't predict the future.

To be fair, wildlife can forecast weather… for a couple of days. Many are sensitive to changes in pressure and humidity. Anyone with a birdfeeder probably has seen some frantic feeding before a snowstorm. However, for them to know exactly what the next season will bring?

On one hand, we have scientists with weather balloons, satellites, maps and all sorts of recording equipment. On the other, a caterpillar. With a brain the size of a pin head. Who do you think has a better chance of correctly predicting winter weather? Yeah, I think neither myself.