A world with no Iowa

If Iowa were to disappear tomorrow, the United States would lose its number one producer of pork, corn and eggs. That would be a loss of over 15 billion bushels of corn, nearly a third of the pork production in the county and 16 billion eggs.

'Iowa is very important. If you look at the dollar amount that we produce, in 2016, the agriculture cash receipts in Iowa were over $26 billion,” Charles Brown, the farm management specialist from the Iowa State University Extension Office for the southeast Iowa region, said.

While it's unlikely an entire state would simply go down overnight, with ever-changing global climate and access to resources, the possibility of a different Iowa is not entirely impossible.

'We've already seen an example of crop supply go down before. The drought of 2012 is a widespread example of soybean and corn supply going down,” Ryan Drollette, an economist and farm management specialist for ISU Extension said.

However, Brown added it would take 'something very prolonged to really devastated the state.”

In the long term, other states and countries are expected to eventually fill the void of agricultural products left by Iowa, but both Drollette and Brown said the immediate short term consequences would see a multitude of related industries affected.

'Without ag in Iowa, it would be a whole different state,” Brown said.

Drollette added that without Iowa, the country's food supply would take a hit but it may not be catastrophic.

'People wonder why the U.S. government still continues to help agriculture in the country and provide subsidies … it's the security side of our food source. That's why we have support systems, to ensure we continue to have that supply,” Drollette said.

The economist explained that while it would potentially be more cost effective to import the majority of food products into the U.S., government subsidies make sure ample production stays within the country in case a foreign country decides to cut off trade or global crisis makes importing products dangerous or unhealthy.

Still, there would be long-term economic ramifications for the state. A study sponsored by the Coalition to Support Iowa's Farmers based on the 2017 USDA Census of Agriculture found in both Henry and Washington County, over 3,000 jobs are employed by ag or ag-related industries. In Jefferson County, close to 1,300 jobs are related to agriculture. In all of Iowa, 20% of the state's residents are employed by ag industries.

'If Iowa ag ceases to exist, it would take away so many jobs. It indirectly employs so many people - all the processors and the manufacturers - it's kind of the first building block of our economy. It requires such a broad base of equipment and services to supply it that it is the first block in the foundation of building economy,” Tom Adam, a soybean farmer from Harper, said.

Ag related industries including manufacturing, machinery, processing, chemical fertilizers and transportation would be affected.

'It gets back to that simple concept of supply and demand. Those companies would take a hit or find other industries to enter, which would increase competition in those other industries - there would be a snowball effect on other things as well,” Drollette explained.

While agriculture and related industries encompasses many different fields, Brown said the most devastating loss to Iowa's economy would probably be the loss of the livestock industry.

'There are many supporting businesses. With cattle and hogs, there are all these feed mills that supply feed, made from corn and beans. There's the packing industry, slaughter houses and trucking,” Brown said.

Drollette explained almost all ag industries are connected in some way and the loss of one industry could have both negative and positive effects on another.

For example, a decrease in livestock, while potentially devastating for corn and soybean growers, could mean more readily available supply for ethanol manufacturers.

'In some cases, there could be a different ripple effect depending on whether there are competing industries for a commodity,” Drollette said.

While changes may eventually be on the horizon, Brown also added that farmers in the state are often working ahead and adapting to whatever lies ahead.

'There's already been some changes. In Iowa, it could be in the mix of crops, corn and soybeans may eventually not be major products - it could be sorghum or wheat, products that can sustain drier climates. We tend to adapt as we move through,” Brown said.