As more counties open, Iowa’s predicted peak continues to move

Restrictions for the 22 counties that remain closed are in place until May 15, according to Gov. Kim Reynolds' proclamation. Whether or not those restrictions will be extended remains to be unknown.

Washington County Public Health Director Danielle Pettit-Majewski said originally the peak for Iowa was predicted to occur around May 7. However, that information was based on social distancing practices being in effect through June.

Now that 77 of Iowa's 99 counties have been partially reopened, it is unclear when the peak for infections will occur, she said. All in all, there are three peaks to be aware of.

The first is the peak of infection which will be followed by the peak of hospitalizations and deaths. The last two are the reason the phrase 'flatten the curve” is being used so often, Pettit-Majewski said, because the goal is not to over run the health care system.

As far as the impact the opening of the other 77 counties will have on the 22 that remained closed, Pettit-Majewski said Tuesday it will be awhile before data is available.

'The earliest I think we would see some of that (data) would be next week. Sometimes people wait a couple of days before they seek treatment so we may not be seeing the results this early,” she said.

Once the remaining 22 counties are able to open, she said it will not look the same as the other 77 due to metrics.

'This won't be a canon ball into the deep end. This is like dipping your toe into a zero entry pool,” she said.

Pettit-Majewski said some restrictions could be lifted but does not feel they will match the other 77 counties.

Vaccines are currently being worked on and human trials have been started in multiple countries. Pettit-Majewski said although this is a great start, it will take time to make sure it is safe enough to use.

'There's not two options that it does nothing or it helps. There's also the chance that it could harm you which is why we want to make sure anything that is created is safe.”

Once the vaccine is created, supply chains in the U.S. are going to need to determine how to make 330 million doses, she said, which will be another problem to counteract. Once the vaccine is available, Pettit-Majewski predicts the most at-risk will be served first.

The at-risk patients are those who are 65 and older with underlying health conditions, she said.

Moving forward, Pettit-Majewski said people should expect the world to progress slowly and for a 'new normal” to occur.

'That's a reality I think we need to get comfortable with sooner rather than later. I think we need to get comfortable with uncertainty,” she said.