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Drought still bad, but rain expected soon
Litany of state, federal reports detail severity and implications of dry weather
Kalen McCain
Aug. 6, 2023 10:17 am
DAVENPORT — Nearly 2.24 million Iowans are living under drought conditions as of Thursday, according to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report for the state. Weather has stayed abnormally dry for the region, but some relief is expected in the next week, according to the National Weather Service office in Davenport.
“Conditions continue to persist or worsen across the area,” the station said on Twitter Friday morning. “In the last 30 days, much of eastern IA, northwest IL, and northeast MO has received less than 75% of normal rainfall. However, rain amounts over one inch are forecast for much of the outlook area in the next seven days.”
Conditions have improved for some parts of the Hawkeye state since early July: the drought monitor showed just over 42% of Iowa under D2 or worse conditions on July 4, now down to 30.3% according to the Aug. 3 update.
But in Southeast Iowa, little has changed. Every acre of Jefferson County has reported D2 or worse conditions every week since June 20 in the monitor. Over 18.5% of the county was rated D3 for the week ending Aug. 1.
Its neighbors haven’t fared much better. Henry County went from 100% in D2 status on June 27 to 87.82 by Thursday. Washington went from 100 to 99.88 in the same period, although it enjoyed a two week reprieve around 63% in the interim.
The U.S. Secretary of Agriculture has declared a drought disaster in Jefferson, Keokuk, and Van Buren Counties. The status requires a county to log a D3 or higher drought intensity value for any length of time, or D2 conditions for eight consecutive weeks, according to a USDA fact sheet. With Henry and Washington counties showing D2 conditions as early as June 20, they could be less than a week away from their own proclamations.
The drought monitor describes a few expected impacts for communities at the D2 — or “severe drought” — level. Alongside heightened risks of algae blooms and grass fires, it notes that “Dryland corn has extremely low yields; commodity shortages are noted; (and) livestock is stressed.”
Soil moisture levels for all three counties fell below the 30th percentile on all but a handful of plots, according to an Aug. 1 state-made graphic using data from NationalSoilMoisture.com.
Big impacts on crop production are already evident in other parts of the state.
The National Weather Service on Thursday reported soybeans flipping their leaves and hay cuttings below half of normal in a monitoring area that includes Northeast Iowa.
“While the new more drought-resistant varieties of corn are staying greener longer, there have been some reports of these crops graying,” said a news release from the NWS office in La Crosse, Wisconsin. “A hay farmer near Chatfield, (Minnesota) reported that he typically gets 3-4 bales per acre off his first cutting. He only got 1-2 acre this year. As far as his second cutting, he typically sees 2-3 bales per acre and only ended up with one bale per acre.”
Declining hay production could spell bad news for buyers, with the latest USDA monthly price report showing the commodity's price already rising in Iowa by the end of June, even as corn and soy prices fell.
State alfalfa prices at the end of June were up to $173 per ton, a $16 increase from the same time last year. The average price for all other hay was $159 per ton, $29 higher than at the end of June in 2022.
More recent data from the USDA’s Iowa Direct Hay Reports shows 50 medium-sized squares of a premium-quality, third cutting alfalfa/grass mix selling at an average rate of $240 per ton in Des Moines, on Aug. 1, although some bales sold at lower rates in the same report.
Livestock farmers are likely to feel the burn as well, with minimal rainfall leaving pastures too dry for grass to thrive while simultaneously knocking down hay production that could otherwise supplement animals’ food supply. The Iowa Drought Plan — a 50-page reference document for local governments published in January this year — lists the industry at the top of its risk assessment section.
“In the event of a drought, ranchers lose pasture and forage lands and need to buy expensive supplemental feed,” the Drought Plan says. “Increased costs often reduce herd sizes, and depleted availability of water for livestock adds additional pressure. Industries that support agriculture are indirectly affected by these stressors.”
The Iowa DNR’s EcoNewsWire update, released on Thursday, said the dry conditions prompted more hand-wringing with each passing day, even with rain in the next week’s forecast.
The newsletter said Iowa farmers saw only two thirds of the usual precipitation, on average, over the last five months.
“After a dry spring and early summer the hope was for a return to normal rainfall in July, but that was not the case,” said Tim Hall, Iowa Department of Natural Resources coordinator of hydrology resources. “Normal monthly rainfall declines as we move through summer and into fall, so the opportunities for getting out of drought this year become more limited, but not impossible, as time passes.”
Comments: Kalen.McCain@southeastiowaunion.com