El Niño may mean above-normal winter temps for region

BY BROOKS TAYLOR

Mt. Pleasant News

Fox News terms it a ?Monster El Niño? while the National Weather Service (NWS) refers to the weather phenomenon building in the Pacific Ocean as a ?Godzilla El Niño.?

Call it what you want, but Rich Kinney, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in the Quad Cities, said in all likelihood, the United States would be experiencing the strongest El Niño since the winter of 1997-98. AccuWeather is predicting the strongest El Niño in 50 years.

?It surely looks like that (El Niño) is the trend for winter,? Kinney said. ?This one also is on the stronger end of the scale.?

So, what does that mean for our winter weather? Mostly good, as far as temperatures are concerned, meteorologists say. Kinney noted that El Niño-influenced winter weather typically brings ?above-normal temperatures? for Iowa.

When asked to define above normal, Kinney said he did not have that data available but said the average monthly winter temperatures in Burlington are as follows: December ? high, 37; low, 21; January ? high, 34; low, 17; and February ? high, 39; low, 21.

Precipitation, on the other hand, is anyone?s guess. The NWS said eastern Iowa has a 50-50 chance of above-normal or below-normal precipitation. ?We don?t have any reliable signal from past El Niños on whether we will have more or less precipitation,? explained Kinney. ?It?s an equal chance for either scenario.

?Certainly there are events on a more local scale that can change the picture,? Kinney continued. ?There can be variations (in precipitation) in a certain region.?

El Niño is a prolonged warming in the Pacific Ocean sea-surface temperatures, when compared with the average value. The NWS definition is a three-month warming of at least 0.9 degrees in a specific area of the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean.

Typically, this anomaly happens at irregular intervals of two to seven years, and lasts nine months to two years. When this warming occurs for seven to nine months, it is classified as El Niño conditions. When the duration is longer, it is classified as an El Niño episode.

A Spanish term, El Niño means ?the little boy? or ?Christ child? because of the tendency for this weather phenomenon to arrive around Christmas.

Weather forecasters are predicting with 95 percent confidence that this winter?s El Niño will last through the winter and be possibly the third strongest since 1950. In addition to the strong El Niño in 1997-98, there have been smaller ones in 2002-2003, 2004-2005 and 2006-2007.

Besides California, the northwest and southeast parts of the United States will bear the brunt of El Niño?s impact, according to AccuWeather. Some areas of California could face flooding and mud slides from anticipated heavy precipitation. Central and northern mountains of California are predicted to receive triple the amount of snow they received last winter.

Above-average storminess is forecast for Boston, New York City, Philadelphia, Newport and Raleigh. The weather pattern also threatens to send chilly air masses into the eastern United States, which could result in a corridor of snow from Texas to the Appalachian Mountains.

While every major weather forecasting service is predicting above-normal temperatures this winter for Iowa, the Farmers? Almanac is not. The almanac said the winter of 2015-2016 would be a repeat of 2014-2015, forecasting a ?very snowy and typically cold winter.?

With temperatures earlier this week in the mid- to upper-70s and forecasted highs in the lower- to mi-60s, we may already be feeling some of the effects of El Niño. The first frost, which hit last weekend, seemed later than usual, but Kinney said it was not. The first freeze generally occurs in eastern Iowa anywhere from Oct. 11-20, while the first hard freeze (28 degrees or lower) generally hits between Oct. 21-31, Kinney said.

?El Niño certainly could be having an impact at this point with the above-normal temperatures we?re seeing,? Kinney remarked. ?However, the primary impact will be seen in the winter months.?