Iowa’s Republicans prepare to make their choice ahead of Caucus night

WASHINGTON — With Caucus Night around the corner on Jan. 15, Southeast Iowans are preparing to cast their ballots in the nation’s first primary election of the year. While the state’s Democrats will vote on the same night, that party’s vote outcomes won’t be announced until March.

Political organizers, from campaign spokespeople to unaligned get-out-the-vote activists, say the evening represents Iowa’s once-in-a-blue-moon chance to shape the nation’s future.

“My goal is to get as many people as possible registered to vote,” said Jan Miller, a volunteer at the Republican Party of Washington County Headquarters. “It’s their right. Don’t sit back, don’t complain, get in there and do something. Just showing up for the caucus is a big thing.”

Still, for many members of the electorate, Jan. 15 will represent a Monday night like any other. In 2016, the last contested Republican primary year, only 30.3% of registered party members turned out to vote, according to Pew Research.

Kalona resident Shane Schwartz said he had a loose preference of candidates, but that he frankly didn’t plan on showing up to the polls. He said he’d lost faith in the political system writ large over the last few years, growing skeptical of both politicians and the news media that covers them.

“I think all politicians are just going to say whatever they think they have to say to get elected, and that really makes me stop caring,” he said. “I see that on the liberal side and on the conservative side … there’s no way that I’m aware of to easily follow the thread of my vote for this person ending up in such and such change to legislation or anything else. It’s this nebulous hole that you throw your vote into.”

Trump and DeSantis voters are enthusiastic

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Among polls published on aggregator website FiveThirtyEight in the last month, former President Donald Trump is a clear front-runner, expected to win about 50% of the vote in Iowa on Jan. 15. Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley are neck and neck, according to the same data, at 15-17% each, while Vivek Ramaswamy hovers anywhere between 5% and 10% from one poll to the next.

Many have taken that data with a grain of salt. All non-Trump candidates, as well as most of their supporters, have said they distrust the polls for one reason or another.

Every registered voter reached by The Union, however, fell into the camps of either Trump or DeSantis. While there may be other factors at play — like less social media activity or less willingness to talk politics among non-Trump, non-DeSantis caucus-goers — the chatter on the ground may be a good sign for the two Republicans.

Those on team Trump said they had few notes after his first term in the nation’s highest office, and hoped to see more of the same after a re-election in 2024.

“The proof’s in the pudding, I know what he’s done,” said Abe Miller, a former Washington County Supervisor and organizer for the county’s Republican Central Committee. “He says he’s going to do the same thing, only on a bigger scale, so I don’t see why I’m really thinking about anybody else.”

Washington County resident Ryan Meader said he’d be caucusing for Donald Trump as well. He believes the former president would effectively curb illicit drug use and the growth of illegal immigration, among other things.

Meader added that he saw similar priorities among other Republican contenders, but that Trump’s experience in office and tenacity in the face of criticism made him the ideal conservative pick.

“He’s kind of an old warhorse now,” he said. “It’s the most bizarre thing any of us have ever seen, but through it all, he keeps marching, he keeps in there. He has a record as somebody who’s got something done as a person who’s hated. Some people frankly don’t like him, and he’s still continued to get things done. That’s very hard to do.”

On the other side of the coin, DeSantis supporters said they worried the former chief executive would mishandle the mantle of the presidency.

Brighton resident Steve Swaffer said he saw Trump’s appeal, but worried the businessman’s legal troubles and polarizing remarks would distract Americans from other, more important matters. The former president currently faces indictments for 91 criminal charges, and has been criticized recently for saying he wouldn’t act like a dictator, “other than day one” in office.

“I feel like DeSantis has strong leadership, he’s got some solid plans as far as the direction to go for the country, and I just really feel like he’s more focused on going forward than on what’s happened in the past,” Swaffer said. “I think Trump is really focused on, for lack of a better term, revenge, or setting the record straight … I don’t want our country to get into a situation where we’re like a third-world banana republic where whoever wins the election goes after all of his political opponents.”

A similar belief is shared by Matt Wells, a DeSantis supporter from Washington who started volunteering for the campaign as early as March of last year, after attending a book signing of the Florida governor’s.

Wells, who identifies himself as “a conservative, not a Republican,” said he likely wouldn’t support another candidate in the general election, adding that he chose DeSantis for his policy positions, but stuck with him for his personality after meeting the governor face-to-face.

“There hasn’t been an occupant of the White House that I could point children toward and say, ‘Here, this man and his wife are what a family should be,’ and I think we need that,” Wells said. “I’m OK with leaving my general election ballot blank, if I have to. If there’s not a person that meets the minimum standards that I’ve set for somebody I support, I’m completely fine with leaving that blank because nobody deserves support if they don’t earn it.”

There are certainly supporters out there for other the other names in the race. Several unidentified people spoke in favor of Ramaswamy at a town hall in Washington on Jan. 6, at least two of whom said they attended his other recent events in Muscatine and Ottumwa.

“I’m glad to be shaking the hand of the future president of the United States,” one woman said to Vivek Ramaswamy on a hot mic after that town hall was livestreamed by his campaign.

Ramaswamy, for his part, has focused heavily on the region in recent weeks.

In a phone call Monday, the presidential candidate said he felt his message was connecting with constituents in the corner of the state.

“It’s a part of the state that feels familiar to me because it’s not that different, in terms of the people and the values and the kinds of people we’ve met there, from the communities I grew up with in Southwest Ohio,” Ramaswamy said. “Many people in small towns across this country have been denied the American dream … and I look to change that by advancing economic opportunity.”

No other presidential campaign polling above 3% in the state replied to repeated requests for comments. The Union was unable to identify or contact any supporters of Nikki Haley or Chris Christie in Henry, Jefferson or Washington counties.

Comments: Kalen.McCain@southeastiowaunion.com