Regulators find minimal safety impacts, possible improvements

Note: “Impact Unpacked” is a series on the findings of a draft environmental statement from regulators on the proposed merger between the Canadian Pacific and Kansas City Southern railways. This article is the third of the series.

WASHINGTON — When a possible railway merger between Kansas City Southern (KCS) and Canadian Pacific (CP) was announced, the minds of many in Washington County jumped to the safety implications of an average 14.41 train-per-day increase in traffic associated with the change.

Writ large, officials at the Office of Environmental Analysis said they expected “only minor adverse impacts” on rail incidents from the planned merger’s traffic, showing the two companies’ combined incident rates slightly lower than the national average for Class I railroads.

“The probability of an accident … depends, in part, on the number of trains that move on that rail line,” the draft impact assessment released earlier this month said. “Therefore, the projected increase in rail traffic that would occur as a result of the Proposed Acquisition would increase the predicted risk of an incident.”

CP and KCS have announced a handful of measures they plan to take that would decrease safety risks if a merger is approved. The list includes conducting and funding third party training for emergency responders in affected communities, as well as leveraging its own emergency response equipment in the event of an accident.

Regulators had nothing to add.

“OEA did not identify any adverse effects related to freight and passenger rail safety that would warrant mitigation,” the document said. “Therefore, OEA does not recommend additional mitigation at this time, beyond what is currently proposed.”

More trains means more accidents, but severity may be low

While systemwide effects are minor, they’re more pressing to some communities at the local level.

As with many issues in the report, the concern is apparently greatest in Southeast Iowa, specifically the segment between Muscatine and Ottumwa, where traffic will increase by the greatest amount. That segment runs through Ainsworth, Washington and Richland, among other communities.

Along that 82.5 mile stretch of tracks, officials predicted that the number of incidents would increase from the current rate of 0.11 per year to 0.43 under the planned acquisition. That’s equivalent to a change from one incident every 9.4 years to one every 2.3.

That said, the agency said it did not anticipate many total catastrophes as a result.

“99.9% of incidents during the five-year review period did not result in injuries or fatalities,” the OEA said. “Under the Proposed Acquisition, most incidents would continue to be minor and only a small percentage would result in impacts to human health.”

The office said a merger could even decrease transportation-related accidents in the long run, albeit indirectly.

“Because the Proposed Acquisition would result in increases in rail traffic by diverting freight from other rail lines and from truck to rail transportation, OEA expects that any potential increase … would be partially or entirely offset by a decrease in the number of accidents on other rail lines and on highways,” the document said.

The OEA said both railways in the proposed merger had promising historical trends of improving safety.

“Incident rates on the CP and KCS systems have declined in recent years,” the agency said. “OEA expects that those rates would continue to decline in the future regardless of whether or not the Board authorizes the Proposed Acquisition … the number of incidents would remain low on the affected rail line segments, and even decrease on some segments.”

On top of those trends the agency said positive train control systems, which were implemented at many locations along the CP and KCS lines, would likely lead to additional safety improvements. The systems are designed to prevent over-speed derailments, train-to-train collisions, movement through work zones and other possible hazards. While promising, the OEA said those systems weren’t factored into its report.

“Although PTC is expected to improve railroad operations safety, it has not been in place long enough for its effect on railroad safety to be observable from historical data,” the assessment said. “Therefore, OEA did not account for the effects of the implementation of PTC in the quantitative freight rail safety analysis … because it may cause the results to overestimate the potential safety impacts of the Proposed Acquisition.”

Chemical spills more likely in shipping yards than in transit

Out of 141 rail segments analyzed, the OEA said 50 would “experience measurable increases in the predicted number of releases” of hazardous materials, from crude oil to liquefied petroleum to batteries to sodium chlorate.

Still, the agency concluded a low overall risk to communities along the tracks.

“OEA expects the number of hazardous material releases would remain low on both the affected rail line segments and yards,” the packet said. “Most incidents would be minor, and the majority of releases would not be caused by train accidents.”

Unlike other safety highlights, Southeast Iowa was not in the area of fastest-growing risk. According to the packet, the biggest jump in hazardous material incidents would occur along a segment between Pittsburg, Kansas and Kansas City, Missouri, where estimated releases would jump from 0.08 per year to 0.23.

Of the 10 segments expecting the highest increase in chemical incidents, only one is in Iowa, on the stretch between Sabula and Marquette. In that area, the projected releases per year would go from 0.42 to 0.52.

The OEA studied CP and KCS’ records of hazardous chemical releases from 2015 to 2019, finding 233 incidents across both railways in that time frame.

Of those, 161 (almost 70%) occurred in rail yards. A similar proportion, (73%) were classified as “non-locomotive related.” Of the incidents outside rail yards, 21 were “accident related,” meaning they were caused unintentionally during the transport process.

In general, the OEA said rail was a safer way to transport hazardous materials than by road.

“To the extent that the transportation of hazardous materials could be diverted from truck to rail as a result of the Proposed Acquisition, the probability of a release occurring would decrease because rail transportation is generally safer,” it said.

While chemical incidents are expected to decline nationwide after a merger, applicants said they expected to take a bigger share of hazardous material transportation in the event of a merger. The result could be a disproportionate rate of chemical spills along the CPKC lines, even as nationwide rates decrease.

“Applicants forecast that the efficiencies created by the Proposed Acquisition would allow CPKC to capture a portion of the hazardous material traffic from those other carriers to the combined CPKC system,” the packet said. “Therefore, OEA expects that any potential increase in the number of releases along rail line segments on the combined CPKC network would be partially offset by a reduction in the number of releases along other rail lines owned and operated by other railroad companies.”

Comments: Kalen.McCain@southeastiowaunion.com