Tracks and Tales: Natural forecasting

The conversation started on topic. As us adults monitored the fifth-graders building shelters and trying to start fires, someone asked me about winter wild edibles. Would I myself know what to eat in a survival situation? I know more about spring wild edibles, but just a few weeks ago, I had found one of my boss? persimmon trees during another hike.

That led another adult to ask if we had checked out the seed for the winter forecast. The rest of us were clearly uneducated about the prognostic power of the persimmon so she called up the images on her smart phone. Apparently the kernel in the seed will be in the shape of a spoon, fork or knife. The spoon indicates lots of snow (representing a shovel) while the fork means just a bit of the white fluffy stuff. A knife means having to ?cut through? ice.

Wait a minute, I thought, my boss has persimmon seeds on his desk. I texted my coworker to request her to check one out. Apparently she hadn?t heard the folklore either as she texted back ?What??!!? (I guess asking someone out of the blue to look for a knife, fork or spoon in a seed sounds a bit kooky.) After a bit of explanation and waiting, we heard back. Definitely spoon.

A snowy winter so far appears in line with other forecasts (including ones actually based in science). El Nino is expected to bring us snow but also a warmer winter. Out of curiosity, I checked the winter weather for the last several El Ninos. Obviously, El Nino is not the only factor in the creation of Iowa?s weather. While most of them showed a warmer winter, during a handful of other el Ninos, our weather was colder than normal instead.

Ok, then, what do other indicators show? Several people have noted a long brown stripe on the wooly bear caterpillars. That?s another vote for mild winter. On the flip side, another folklore saying says ?as high as the weeds grow, so will the bank of snow.? I never could determine which of our many weeds this might refer too. However, it appeared to me that the weeds were extra plentiful this past year. I assume that means thick, heavy snow?

Another vote for a bit harsher winter comes from the trees. Tradition also predicts ?when leaves fall early, fall and winter will be mild: when leaves fall late, winter will be severe.? I would definitely say our fall has been mild so far. Yet October is nearly over and our leaves have been rather slow to fall. I had been paying attention to this very fact since I had several very early October programs centered on the season. Unfortunately for my programs, autumn hadn?t shown up quite yet.

Hyperactive squirrels burying tons of nuts supposedly also mean a harsh winter. This one is a bit harder to determine. The squirrels seem rather active, but there also seem to be a lot more (and a lot younger ones) out right now. I usually have a couple in my yard at a time and lately I count nearly a dozen. So the question is, are they really overactive or just overpopulated?

So, as a result, what is my forecast for the coming winter? Well, first, I have a 100 percent failure rate in that department, so it seems futile for me to even guess. Second, failure is a bit easier to take when it?s not in print. Third, if memory serves, it seems like even the officials are more often wrong than not. In other words, I?m not even going to attempt a guess.

When winter comes, the weather will be what it will be. We will find out soon enough.