Soy markets shift amid trade war

WASHINGTON — November 2025 soybean futures dropped 51 cents between July 18 and Aug. 6 according to the Iowa Soybean Association, one of several farm advocacy groups sounding the alarm about a lack of demand for grain from China as harvest season draws near.

China — according to Kat’s Grain Ag Commodities Broker John Greiner — imports a sizable share of the United States’ soybean crop in a typical year, including roughly 20-40% of those grown in Southeast Iowa. But the nation hasn’t purchased any American soy since the beginning of a tit-for-tat trade war with the United States under the Trump administration this year.

Greiner said the U.S. was behind on its export sales this year as a result, with around 16% of the state’s projected soybean harvest forecast sold to buyers abroad. The five-year average at this point in the season is around 30%.

“We are behind, however, we’re not that far behind,” Greiner said. “Actually, versus a year ago at this time, we’re actually ahead of our export sales … We’re doing better than you would think, with our number-one customer having bought zero as of now, but yes, we’re seeing a wider basis for fall delivery than what we typically see.”

And while other buyers abroad have partially filled the gap left by China’s lack of demand, Greiner said ongoing trade disputes would likely still impact farmers this season.

He expects little change for producers with on-the-farm grain storage, which can wait out better selling markets. But producers without that option will likely have to get more creative to afford ongoing expenses like bank loan payments.

“You’ll be forced to sell with a wider basis … possibly below break-even costs, or you’ll be forced to pay commercial storage, which is expensive,” he said. “You can sell them out of the field then turn around and buy them back, either with long futures or long-call options. At least then you’re creating cash flow, and you still stand to gain if the market goes up over time.”

Farm advocacy groups have sounded the alarm in recent weeks, saying U.S.-China trade disputes have left growers without a sufficient market.

The American Soybean Association, in a letter addressed to President Donald Trump Aug. 19, called the nation’s farm economy teetered on a “financial precipice.”

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“Soybean farmers are under extreme financial stress,” Kentucky farmer and ASA President Caleb Ragland wrote in that letter. “Prices continue to drop and at the same time our farmers are paying significantly more for inputs and equipment. U.S. soybean farmers cannot survive a prolonged trade dispute with our largest customer.”

Anxiety has only grown with harvest season approaching.

“In 45 to 60 days we'll be in the glut of soybean harvest,” said Randy Miller, an Iowa Soybean Association board member, in a press release from that group Aug. 14. “That's when we put beans on rail and ships and deliver to our customers around the world. If the world's largest buyer isn’t buying anything from the U.S., that’s a problem.”

Many have expressed concern as China’s pivoted to contracts with businesses in other soybean-supplying nations like Brazil.

Some advocates worry the shift has accelerated infrastructure investments in nations now competing with American soy farmers, a trend that could drive down global prices moving forward as higher supply saturates the market.

“China has not been shy about its strategies to circumvent freshly harvested U.S. supplies this fall,” said a market analysis from ASA in August. “China imported record volumes of Brazilian soybeans between April and July 2025, growing domestic stockpiles of soymeal to the point at which Chinese soybean processors are facing negative margins.”

Greiner, however, says he expects markets to even out, more or less, whenever the current dispute with China ends.

He noted that Beijing quickly resumed its purchase of U.S. soy after trade wars with the first Trump administration, and cited China’s recent unsolicited deployment of a trade negotiator to the U.S. as a sign that its industry was eager to return to the table.

“With China’s monster appetite for soybeans, they’ve never had a year where they did not buy from the United States,” Greiner said. “You can go back to the last Trump trade war, back in 2019. China cut back significantly, but it didn’t take long for them to come back to the table … they realize they’re going to need soybeans, especially if Brazil has weather issues.”

Comments: Kalen.McCain@southeastiowaunion.com