Playoff RPI: Four area teams on bubble

The third edition of the IHSAA playoff RPI rankings were released on Monday evening and the outlook is questionable for the Union coverage area's four potential playoff teams.

All four teams find themselves squarely on the bubble, even unbeaten Sigourney-Keota, who finds its self at No. 14 in the Class 1A rankings. Washington sits at No. 14 in Class 3A. Mt. Pleasant is No. 15 in Class 3A, and New London is No. 17 in 8-Man.

All nine district champions will earn an automatic berth in the playoffs for each class. After that, the RPI decides the next seven. Assuming all seven district champions are also in the top 16 in the RPI, that means teams must be in the top 16 at the end of the year to earn their spot.

The outlook for Washington and Mt. Pleasant is simple enough. Win, and you're in. The Demons and Panthers play each other on Friday, and whoever wins is almost assuredly going to be in.

The Class 3A locks are as follows (with RPI ranking in parenthesis): Sergeant Bluff-Luton (4) has clinched District 1. Western Dubuque (2) has clinched District 4. Solon (1) has clinched District 6, and Norwalk (5) has clinched District 8.

Teams on the bubble, like Washington and Mt. Pleasant, want the automatic qualifiers to be ahead of them in the RPI, not behind. With four districts clinched, and all four teams ahead of Washington and Mt. Pleasant, the odds of the Demons or Panthers being in the top seven non-district winners increases.

Now, to look at the districts still in question.

District 2 will be won by Dallas Center-Grimes (11) or Carroll (24). Those two teams will play this Friday, and that could end up spoiling a potential at-large bid. At-large hopefuls like Washington and Mt. Pleasant should be cheering for DC-G, the favorite. The disaster scenario for at-large hopefuls is Carroll upsets D-CG, and D-CG stays high enough in the RPI to steal a spot.

Luckily for Washington and Mt. Pleasant, D-CG is only a few spots ahead. A loss would drop them in the RPI, probably enough for the Washington-MP winner to jump them. If DC-G loses, they'll have the same record as the Washington-MP winner, a worse 'opponents' record” and a similar 'opponents' opponents' record.”

What does that all mean? Basically, it means District 2 is not a threat. Whoever loses that district championship matchup will end up behind the Washington-MP winner in the RPI, a great sign for the winner's playoff chances.

District 3 will be won by Independence (10) or Decorah (22). They also play on Friday, and it's a similar situation to District 2. Washington and MP fans should be cheering for Independence, the team who's already ahead of them in the RPI. But if Decorah pulls the upset, Independence could end up behind the Washington-MP winner anyway.

Independence is undefeated so far, at 8-0. They are only one of three undefeated teams in Class 3A, but still only 10th in the RPI rankings. Why? Independence's opponents are 24-48. That low strength of schedule means they could go 8-1 and still fall out of the playoff race, thanks to two-loss teams with better SOS's, AKA a team like Washington or Mt. Pleasant.

District 5 will be won by either North Scott (9) or Davenport Assumption (17). They also play this Friday, and it would be in the best interest of Union area fans to cheer for North Scott. The higher up in the RPI rankings teams are, the more likely they won't fall far enough to get behind the Washington-MP winner. That makes District 5 a threat to steal an at-large spot, if the math works out in their favor.

District 7 will go to Pella (7), Grinnell (18) or Oskaloosa (19). Pella would clinch with a win over Grinnell, and assuming Oskaloosa beats winless South Tama, the three teams would be tied with a Grinnell win, and the RPI would decide who is district champion. Even if Pella were to stay ahead with a loss, it is unlikely Grinnell could jump the Washington-MP winner. That means, despite the scary three-way tie station, District 7 is safe. It won't steal a bid from Washington and Mt. Pleasant, barring a South Tama-Oskaloosa upset, which could lead to both Grinnell and Pella getting bids.

That leaves District 9. Council Bluffs Lewis Central (3), Harlan (8) and Glenwood (12) are all ahead of both Washington and Mt. Pleasant. They are all favored this weekend in their final games, and will likely all be getting spots before the Demons or Panthers. District 9 is not a friend to fans of the Union area, and it would benefit the Washington-MP winner if Harlan and/or Glenwood were to get upset. Lewis Central's high RPI has them more than likely locked in, win or lose.

In conclusion: Nine district champions will be in, and two at-large teams from District 9 will likely be in as well. That's 11 of the 16 teams accounted for. If all the favorites win and there are no bid-stealers, the Washington-MP winner will slip in, and it would take an all out disaster for the winner of the Washington-MP game to be left out of the field.

In Class 1A, all S-K has to do is win. If they win, they're the district champions and get an automatic bid, simple as that. They would also be rewarded a home game for being a district champion.

A loss, however, might spell disaster. Remember how 8-0 Independence could still get knocked out with a loss? That threat is even worse for S-K.

If the Cobras lose, Mediapolis is District 5 champion, and they'll jump S-K in the RPI. That puts S-K - at best - in the No. 15 spot.

Western Christian (3), South Central Calhoun (9), Osage (21), West Branch (2), Dike New-Hartford (5), Pella Christian (25), Van Meter (1) and Treynor (11) are the other six district leaders. With two of those teams sitting behind S-K right now, that means there are only four district champions ahead of them, along with seven potential at-large teams.

S-K's big problem lies within its opponents' record. Before the Mediapolis game, S-K's opponents are 22-51, the worst mark in the entire class. That drags the Cobras' RPI down far enough to put them in a 'win-and-in” situation. Playing 7-1 Mediapolis will help that mark out, but probably not enough to make up for the potential loss.

Of course, none of this matters if the Cobras come out on top on Friday.

As if that wasn't confusing enough, New London's situation takes the question marks to new heights.

The Tigers are currently in a three-way tie for second place in Class 8-Man District 4. They are also No. 17 in the 8-Player RPI, and play the No. 10 team, Montezuma, on the road this Friday.

If New London loses, the title defense is over. The Tigers would be mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. If they win? That's where the math comes in, once again.

Unfortunately for the Tigers, even if district-leading HLV loses to Iowa Valley this weekend, New London loses all the tiebreakers. They were defeated by HLV, as well as Lone Tree, and those would be the two teams they tie with in the final standings. That means the Tigers need to jump enough teams in the RPI to sneak their way in.

There are only eight districts in Class 8-Man, so eight teams get automatic bids. The projected champions in order of district: Remsen St. Mary' s (4), Don Bosco (3), Turkey Valley (1), HLV (12), Gladbrook-Reinbeck (15), Lamoni (9), Fremont-Mills (8) and Audubon (2). All of those teams are in the top 16 already, meaning New London would just need to be in the top 16 themselves to earn that final bid ... and they're playing Midland, No. 16 team.

The bad news: Even with a win, the Tigers could still have bid-stealers spoil their playoff hopes. Southeast Warren (20) could upset Lamoni to win District 6 and plausibly steal a spot ... or somebody could catch them from behind in the RPI rankings.

There is just one team behind New London that is a serious threat to make the leap over the Tigers if both teams win. The team directly behind the Tigers with an RPI just .0031 away? Rockford. The very team New London beat to secure the Class 8-Man championship last season. It all comes down to Friday night. After all the games are in, the IHSAA will be releasing its final RPI of the year and announcing the 16 teams in each class who will duke it out for a state championship.