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RPI ratings: Demons, Trojans squarely on bubble
Washington, Fairfield or Grinnell? Who gets the last playoff spot
Andy Krutsinger
Oct. 19, 2022 12:23 pm
Going into league play, it was clear that Class 3A’s District 5 was going to be a tight one. With one week left to go, there still is plenty up in the air.
Fairfield and Washington enter Friday night’s district contests from the outside looking in. The Trojans and Demons are tied for third in the district standings, having each won two games and lost two, and neither team is all the way in or all the way out of the 2022 playoffs.
The good news for the Trojans and Demons, is that second place Grinnell is only one game ahead of both teams in the standings, and the Tigers may be in a must-win situation themselves.
Grinnell visits Fairfield on Friday and not only is the postseason on the line for both the Tigers and Trojans, but there will be some interested eyes watching down Highway 1.
The parity in District 5 has made at-large playoff berths a pipe dream. With no teams in real threatening position to finish with a high enough RPI (Ratings Percentage Index) number to steal a third bid for the district, only two teams are going to be playing next weekend. District champion Solon is one, and one of the other three will be the other.
If Grinnell beats Fairfield on Friday night, not only are the Trojans are knocked out, as are the Demons. Grinnell would win second place alone and the outside of a miracle in mathematics, the RPI wouldn’t do anything to help the other two.
If Fairfield beats Grinnell and West Burlington-Notre Dame takes down Washington, the Trojans will tie for second place, and get an automatic bid into the playoffs. It’s that simple.
If, however, both the Trojans and Demons do finish the night on top, the math gets really murky. With all three teams holding a 1-1 record against each other, as Grinnell has already defeated Washington, and the Demons beat the Trojans last Friday, the last spot comes down entirely to the RPI ratings.
The RPI takes into account three things: Your record, your opponents’ record and your opponents’ opponents’ record. That means, any games between any teams that the Demons, Trojans and Tigers played matters, as well as any games between any teams that opponents of the Demons, Trojans and Tigers have played.
Currently, Grinnell is ranked No. 17 in Class 3A RPI. The Tigers hold a rating of .5068. Washington is No. 22, at 0.4782, and Fairfield is 23rd, at .04620.
The Demons and Trojans obviously need a bump down from Grinnell to get up to the Tigers’ level, but a loss to Fairfield would do just that. Grinnell would end the year with a worse record than both Fairfield and Washington, which could cause their RPI to tumble.
Ideally, that puts Washington in the top spot, since the Demons’ RPI is 0.162 points higher than the Trojans, but Fairfield would likely gain points on Washington by playing the Tigers, while Washington’s opponent, West Burlington-Notre Dame has the No. 30 RPI in the class.
So with all that said, the games in Fairfield and Washington this Friday night mean a lot in the Class 3A picture. And between the Trojans, Demons and Tigers, it’s anybody’s guess who will be putting on the pads next weekend in the Class 3A playoffs.
Washington’s Mason Morgan (11) deflects the ball away from Fairfield’s Tallon Bates (12) on a deep ball in the first half of an Oct. 14, 2022 game at Case Field. (Andy Krutsinger/The Union)