Wading my way through the playoff numbers

OK, let?s clear up this playoff picture (a.k.a. let me try to use enough numbers for you to just not care anymore). Also, I?m going to have to ask you to assume my calculations are correct.

In Class 1A District 5, Belle Plaine, Pekin and Wapello are all fighting for the final two playoff spots now that West Branch and Eddyville-Blakesburg have each clinched one. In short, two-way ties in the standings are resolved via head-to-head competition. Three-way ties, when each team has one win in head-to-head games (the scenario we would have with a Belle Plaine loss), is resolved by point differential. However, a team can only receive a maximum of 13 and a minimum of -13 in a single game for tiebreaker purposes. If point differential is tied (unlikely), alphabetical order is used to determine the team headed to the postseason.

We are going to presume that Wapello wins by at least 13 at Iowa Valley in the season finale because, well, I say so. After seeing them this past Friday, this is not a difficult assumption to make ? trust me.

First, if Pekin wants in, they must win ? obviously. Second, they will need a Belle Plaine loss. If Belle Plaine wins at home vs. Eddyville-Blakesburg, the Plainsmen will take second-place, Eddyville-Blakesburg will be third ? each having 5-2 district records ? and Wapello will take fourth by way of the head-to-head tiebreaker (Wapello 38, Pekin 29 on Sept. 25) vs. Pekin with 4-3 records.

Now, if Belle Plaine loses, it gets complicated.

Currently, Belle Plaine has a point differential of +22, Pekin is +4 and Wapello is dead even (0). With the Belle Plaine loss and the Wapello 13-point win, Pekin WILL be in the postseason with a win of nine points or more at home against Durant (3-5, 2-4). In a three-way tie, the nine-point victory would tie Wapello?s best possible point differential and send the Panthers through regardless of how many points Belle Plaine loses by.

And yes, Durant could be in the picture if Iowa Valley were to upset Wapello, but seriously, let?s not even go there.

If Pekin wins by 6, 7 or 8 points, they would need Belle Plaine to lose by at least 13, 12 or 11 points, respectively. A five-point victory will likely leave the Panthers out in the cold no matter what. Similarly, the Wapello/Belle Plaine battle will come down to whether or not Wapello can make up the 22-point advantage the Plainsmen currently hold.

Class A District 5

Cardinal ? win and you?re in. Simple as that.

A win would move Cardinal to 3-3 in district play and put them in third place regardless of Lone Tree?s result with WACO.

With a loss, the Comets will fall into a three-way tie for fourth with Lone Tree (assuming a loss to undefeated WACO) and New London at 2-4 in district play and put the point-differential tiebreaker into action.

Friday, Cardinal will host Highland (2-6, 2-3), Lone Tree will host WACO (5-3, 5-0) while New London plays a non-district game at home against Newell-Fonda. Per game point differentials are currently -1 for Lone Tree, -2.6 for Cardinal and -3.17 for New London. Simply enough, whichever of the three teams ends up with the best point differential when Friday?s dust settles will claim the final postseason slot. A Comet loss by seven or more will put them behind New London and out of the playoffs. A Comet loss by 1-6 points will put them head-to-head with Lone Tree?s final point differential that currently stands five points in Lone Tree?s favor.

There it is ? I think.